Olympic preview: Pool B

New Zealand

Squad

15 months ago there was really only one team heading for gold in Rio. Six back-to-back tournament wins in the World Series, and 11 successive finals. Three overall series wins and, to crown it all, the 2013 Sevens World Cup. Sean Horan’s team seemed unstoppable.

But then it did stop. A semi-final loss in London meant the Ferns missed out on a final – something that had only happened once before to any official New Zealand women’s sevens team. And, perhaps significantly, that defeat was to Australia.

New Zealand have not won a World Series round since. Their two finals last season saw defeats to Australia and England, but since May 2015 there have also been losses to Spain, Canada, the United States (twice), and Russia.

Has the mighty fallen? Did Horan’s team peak too soon? Have they been unlucky with a string of injuries to key players? Or has the wily old coach been playing with us, keeping his powder dry and using the most recent series to experiment and test in the knowledge that in 2016 only one tournament mattered? Has the master plan been kept under wraps ready to explode into action next Saturday?

The truth is in there somewhere. Fact is that the Ferns only began to look fallible after they had already wrapped up the 2014/15 series with practically two rounds to go. Horan has also made it pretty clear that he was not wildly concerned about the 2015/16 series because the Olympics would be the only thing anyone remembered (he is right about that). And there has been experimentation, perhaps forced by injury at times, but despite that and all the above losses the Ferns still came within a single point of the top seeding in Rio.

That may have been Horan’s only miscalculation because it means that Canada or Great Britain now stand in his way to the final, instead of a second-place team. But he still avoids Australia. And that is probably all he is concerned about.

In short, we think recent form counts for very little with this team. The squad travelling to Rio is miraculously injury free, at least so far as all of the key players who have struggled over the past year are concerned. It reads like an opponent’s worst nightmare – heck, they left names like Hohepa, Blyde and Hireme out, all of whom who would be automatic picks in any other squad.

It may just be that the Ferns of 2012-15 are back. Except this time they have a few scores to settle. And history to make.

France

Squad

It almost comes as a surprise to realise that France have only been a core team for two World Series. They are – to put it mildly – late converts to the sevens cause. Back in 2013 in Amsterdam, while the rest of the world was watching the exciting climax to the first World Series, coach David Courteix and his team could be found on the back pitches playing in the invitational and morosely bewailing that no-one in French rugby cared about sevens.

Quite where or when the Damascene moment came is hard to spot, but at some point in the next 12 months everything changed. We suspect it was around the moment when the Rio qualification process was published and someone in the FFR realised that actually all they needed to do was put together a team that could beat Spain and Russia.

Whatever it was, the result was revolutionary. The entire French domestic programme was upended, given the severest shaking imaginable, and directed entirely at the cause of the needs of the national teams. There were complaints and protests, but this is France. They have ways of dealing with such things.

To begin with the fifteens had priority, but once the 2014 World Cup was out of the way sevens became all that mattered.

The result possibly exceeded anything anyone expected as the French, in their first year in the Series, having only qualified as runners-up to Fiji in the promotion tournament, very nearly picked up an automatic Olympic spot. Up until the final tournament of the 2014/15 series they were still ahead of England, but injuries to key players (especially one who missed the final two rounds after an injury picked up in the domestic cup final – Courteix was not impressed) meant they were pipped at the post. Never mind – all they needed to do was win the European championship, which they did after an unexpected pool defeat to the Netherlands meant they fortuitously met (and defeated) their main rivals, Russia, in a semi-final when all the Russians had had to do was reach the final to win the golden ticket to Rio. By such small margins, and perhaps luck, are fortunes made.

And so to Rio – what can we expect? Will luck be wearing bleu again?

France have never failed to reach a quarter-final since joining the Series and it would be amazing if they did not do so here. The biggest threat to their progress is undoubtedly Spain, in the tournament’s opening game which promises to be a media sensation full of emotion and razzamatazz, so frankly it could go to whichever team keep their cool best. The French are pretty good at that. And they know the Spanish very well indeed. They should reach the last eight.

It is pretty unlikely that they will beat New Zealand, so a quarter against the loser of Great Britain and Canada from Pool C seems likely. If it’s Canada then that may just be the end of their adventure, but if it proves to be Great Britain then all bets are off. That would be a very special match indeed, and one the French would relish.

Spain

Squad

Pop quiz. Which was the highest-placed European team at the 2013 Sevens World Cup – the last major worldwide one-off sevens tournament?

Yes, it was Spain. And that sums up one truism of sevens – never underestimate the Spanish.

Egged on, perhaps, by the way they were dumped out of the Six Nations, the Spanish have taken sevens seriously, and for longer, than just about any other team in the world. From the first European sevens championship back in 2003 they have been a top team – indeed for the first decade of the tournament the only team that ever stood in the way of total Spanish domination was England. If, for whatever reason, England did not win it (often because they did not enter), then Spain almost invariably did.

Recent years have been tougher, as the rest of the world has woken up. They were denied a place in the first World Series, despite having a better playing record than some teams that were invited, and had to win a spot the hard way, via the 2013 World Cup.

In the Series itself they have rarely sparked. Certainly luck has not often been on their side – in tournament after tournament they have been the “unlucky” third-placed team that missed out on the quarter-finals. They have reached the last eight in just three out of the last 11 tournaments – though two of those were the most recent in Langford and Clermont.

On World Series form it would appear that Spain are destined to be hoping for a best third spot again, against maybe Australia. Who they beat in the 2013 World Cup quarter-finals.

But on World Series form Spain should not be here at all. They do seem to throw the formbook out when one-off events come along. Russia were clear favourites in Dublin for the Reprecharge, but Spain won it. What is more, not only have they beaten France in the past, they have beaten New Zealand too – just over a year ago.

For what it’s worth we think Spain will reach the last eight, but probably go no further – though it would be wonderful if they did (and it’s not out of the question that they might). However, we also fear that they might end up in the Bowl again. It’s going to be a close run thing.

Kenya

Squad

If just a fraction of the rumours that come out of East Africa are true, then it is amazing that Kenya made it to Rio at all.

Indeed, they should not be here. Well beaten in the African qualifier final, they were only offered the place when the South African Olympic Committee refused to send their women’s team because they had not qualified via the World Series. Qualification is “too easy” for South African teams in African qualifiers, apparently.

The Springboks loss has been Kenya’s gain, but at times it does not seem to have been something that Kenyan authorities – and especially their Olympic Committee – have welcomed.

News story after news story in the local press have suggested that the Kenyan coach had been sacked, or was to be sacked, or would not be allowed to travel to Rio. Unconfirmed reports that players and coaching staff had not been paid for several months, of players unable to afford the food they need, or of poor training facilities, are common.

What is true, and what not, is hard to judge from a distance. However, we do know that three of the coaching staff are in Brazil, including coach Mike Shamia, and we also know that this makes it the smallest coaching team in Rio (Great Britain have sent a support team of nine, and Australia are eight).

What is also true is that, despite all of this negative and demotivating publicity, this is arguably the most feared of the three non-World Series teams in Rio. Despite never having played outside of Africa before, despite missing several key players, and despite their payment dispute, they severely rattled several teams in Clermont, and deservedly beat Japan in the 11thplace game.

Fitness did seem to be an issue in Clermont – Kenya would be highly competitive for the first seven minutes, but then tended to fade badly in the second half. They also seemed a little overawed by their opponents at times. Hopefully Shamia has got that out of their system.

Kenya will not win any medals, but winning a place in the World Series looks very possible. They will be too much for rivals Colombia, they beat Japan relatively easily in Clermont, and are quite capable of beating Brazil. If they did manage to beat these three, Kenyan and East African women’s rugby would be transformed. It would be wonderful to see that happen.

Pool A Preview

Pool C Preview

Match timings and results