Asian Rio qualifier, first leg preview

The Hong Kong RFU have been promoting this weekend hard - and believe they can get to Rio

After the closest possible Asian Sevens Championship, which went down to match-point difference after a three-way tie, the race for Asia’s place at next year’s Olympics could hardly be closer.

Six teams will play in one round-robin pool over the weekend, with the top two then playing off for the tournament title. There will also be play-off places for third and fifth. However, unlike the men’s qualification, which will be decided solely on this weekend’s tournament in Hong Kong, the women’s teams will have to meet again in Japan at the end of the month, with the best performance over both tournaments deciding who will go to Rio.

The selection of teams for the tournament attracted a lot of comment when they were announced last week. Uzbekistan – who had won the Asian Olympic pre-qualifier in India in March are not among the teams in this tournament. India, who finished as runners-up, are also absent. Instead – without any public explanation from Asia Rugby – Guam (who finished third in the pre-qualifier) have been invited to take part, a decision that seems to have been taken as far back as July.

In addition Thailand (who beat Hong Kong in the second leg of the Asian Championship) and Singapore (whose men’s team will be in Hong Kong) are also notable by their absence, despite finishing fifth and sixth last month. However, Sri Lanka – who finished eighth – will be competing for an Olympic place. Again no explanation for these teams’ surprise absences has been released.

In practice neither Guam nor Sri Lanka are likely to mount a significant challenge for this tournament, or the overall the Olympic spot. Guam performed well in the pre-qualifier, losing only their opening game, but failed to take part in the Asian Championship. However, pre-qualifier winner Uzbekistan did take part, and finished seventh, which suggests that Guam are likely to be similarly off the pace. For a small island which has been advertising on Facebook for qualified players since being told about their surprise inclusion three months ago, going up against full-time professional teams such as Hong Kong, Japan and China will be a very tough ask indeed.

Sri Lanka do not have to advertise for players – they have one of Asia’s biggest player-bases – but so far they have failed to turn that numerical advantage into performance on the field, and finished a disappointing last in the Championship. It is unlikely that they will have been able to turn that around in only a couple of weeks, so their target is likely to be no higher than beating Guam for fifth place.

Kazakhstan have never really made an impact at sevens in Asia, at least since the rest of the continent turned to the format after its inclusion in the Olympics. In recent years they have gradually slipped down the rankings to fourth, and while their famously physical style will at times rattle their opponents, it’s very hard to see them finishing anywhere other than fourth again.

Which brings us to the top three.

Quite how much we should read into the Asian Championship is very hard to say, as all three teams will have been treating that series as a warm-up for this. The World Series qualifier in Dublin is maybe a better guide, and that saw Japan put in a very impressive performance to win a place in the World Series. Japan will therefore start as the team to beat, but it will not be easy.

China can be expected to come roaring back after the disappointment of losing their World Series spot. Hong Kong coach Anna Richard, when asked about their strengths in a recent radio interview, summed them up as “Great going forward but have always a bit suspect in contact”.

She also suggested that last year’s World Series experience may have hurt the team: “Since they made the World Series they have lost a bit of confidence. They did not play well, and when we saw them in Ireland they didn’t perform at all. They have great athletes and their attacking players are good - when they have space- but their confidence is down hugely and they are not the team they used to be.”

However, since that World Series disappointment China have looked beyond their shores for coaching for the first time, calling in former England sevens star Ben Gollings – and he is very upbeat about their chances:

“All’s looking good. I’ve come to China to consult with them and basically see if we can get them qualified for the Olympics. China are a big sporting and Olympic nation and keen to give it a good go. I’m enjoying the challenges that at ahead of me at the moment

“China are used to being number one in Asia, but with the Olympics coming, Hong Kong getting stronger and stronger and Japan putting a lot of emphasis on it, things are starting to change. I was with the girls that got to the final [of the first leg of the Asian series] in China, but we need to improve out performances if we want to qualify

“There seem to be a lot of talented athletes in China, but with the short period of time we have I am only working with the ones that have already been identified. If we do get the opportunity and qualify we may open the door a bit and see if we can find some other special athletes as there’s plenty there.”

Finally, hosts Hong Kong will also be confident, despite a disappointing performance in the second leg of the Asian Championship when they lost their opening pool game to Thailand, the knock-on effect of which was missing out on the final, and with it the overall title. After years of showing great potential, coach Anna Richard now has players that believe in themselves. No longer do they start on the back foot when faced with their “big sisters” from over the border in China – indeed it is Hong Kong who have had much the better of their recent meetings. Their record with Japan is less clear cut, but still very even. Hong Kong’s greatest problem remains consistency, but although they are not be favourites, with home stadium advantage they are more than capable of winning this first leg if they can maintain their strength and focus throughout the two days.

Overall it will be the team that makes fewest mistakes that will be in Rio next year.