European Leg 2 preview

A European place at the Olympic Games in Rio is just one of the prizes up for grabs this weekend at the Stade Raymond Faucher in Malemort, in the outskirts of Brive. The identity of the first of Europe’s other four teams to qualify for the June 2016 Olympic Repecharge tournament will also be decided, along with the teams who will compete for a place in next year’s Women’s Sevens World Series.

World Rugby have yet to confirm the details, but based on last year’s event,  it is likely that three European teams (who are not already in the series) will take part in a World Series qualifier before the start of the next series in December to replace China and South Africa, who were relegated last season.

With Russia, France, England and Spain already in the World Series, Ireland currently lead the race for the WSWS qualifier followed by Netherlands and Italy – but with Wales, Scotland and Portugal well placed to steal a spot.

Pool A

Russia, Spain, Italy, Ukraine

Russiabegin as favourites to win the Series and with it a place in Rio. Not only were they winners in Kazan, but they also built up such a huge points-difference advantage over France (67 points) that –unless France can whittle the advantage down – all Russia need do is reach the final in Malemort to take the prize. And it is really hard to see them failing to do exactly that.

Rising teenage starDaria Fefelovahas been called up in place of Zhanna Matveeva, who disappointed coach Pavel Baranovsky in the first leg. Despite her age, this should strengthen the squad as one of her first appearances saw Russia reach the final in Langford.

Spainretain a mathematical chance of reaching Rio as well – but in practice would not only have to win the tournament, but in addition both Russia and France would have to go out at the semi-final stage, ideally sooner. As they are already in next season’s World Series, their main target will now be the repecharge, either by direct qualification or via Lisbon.

Spain clearly had an advantage over all of the non-World Series teams in Kazan, but we are rapidly nearing the point when they will have to beat some of Europe’s WSWS teams as well – and losing to the young, experimental England team in the third place game last weekend showed that the Spanish still have a long way to go before they can book their tickets for the Olympics.

Italy’s target will be making the WSWS qualifier, and after a strong performance against Wales they could do it. On paper they have an excellent team, but lack serious sevens experience and will struggle against Russia and Spain. Third place in this pool seems certain – but they will have to rack up the points against Ukraine and avoid too much damage against Russia if they are to reach the last eight.

Ukraineagain showed that the Grand Prix Series is a different world to Division A. They had a disappointing weekend last week, being thoroughly hammered in all games apart from the 11thplace play off with Germany, which means that they stand a slim chance of avoiding relegation as long as they can make the Bowl final (it being extremely unlikely that they will make the quarter finals). In practice that would mean beating perhaps Scotland or Portugal, on this season’s form that seems unlikely.

Pool B

France, Netherlands, Wales, Portugal

Francewon what appeared a tough group in Kazan in style, before playing superbly on Day 2 and they will have felt themselves unlucky not to take the title. Arguably the most exciting team when in full flow, they can often move the ball across the field faster than any other European team. It was very noticeable how in Kazan the French were capable of throwing perfectly timed long passes in front of sprinting team-mates, who could pluck them out of the air, whereas many opponents were passing to largely static backlines.

However, with their points disadvantage compared to Russia, they need to stack up the scores against everyone they meet – and that will not be easy in what is again a tricky group.

Meanwhile it is getting close to crunch time for theNetherlands. Back in 2012 anything seemed possible for the Dutch after their decision to turn professional meant they stole a march on the rest of the world, and they reached the final of the London Sevens with a well-deserved win over Australia in the semi-finals. But after that the world began to catch up and even overtake the Dutch. For over four years some of of their players have devoted their lives to the chance to reach Rio, and time is running out. Direct qualification from the championship always seemed unlikely, but the Netherlands must get a place in the WSWS qualifier (and also qualify) if they are to have a realistic hope of winning the repecharge next June. Can they do it? It is possible. At Amsterdam and at Kazan they took early leads in the majority of their games, but in most cases failed to hold onto them. The same thing happened when they visited England for a series of training games in early May. If they can find a way to retain (and even build) on the starts they get their position could be transformed. And they can do it - ask the Australians back in 2012 (who, of course, were coached by Chris Lane - who is now the Dutch coach). Will they be able to rediscover that strength? They have to.

Walesare not troubled by the Olympics - but they do find themselves possibly just one spot away from a place in a WSWS qualifier. That could transform Welsh women's rugby. Wales have targeted sevens in recent years - giving up their youth XVs programme - so it should be no surprise to see them where they now are. Kazan was a good all-round performance, consistent across both days, and a significant learning experience. They should reach the quarter-finals again - they might even take second place in their pool  as their opening game against the Dutch will be fascinating (France will be a step too far at the moment).

Portugalwere disappointing in Kazan - but maybe not surprisingly so given their pre-tournament form - and relegation will now be a big concern as it looks like that will be the fate of two from themselves, Germany and the Ukraine. Drawn in arguably the toughest of the three pools really will not have helped their chances as a place in the bowl seems inevitable.

Pool C

England, Ireland, Scotland, Germany

Englandhave made a few changes to a group that their management team freely admits to be experimental, with the long term in mind. Yet they finished a well deserved third in Kazan (a scare at the hands of Ireland notwithstanding). While they are not under such pressure as a team, individually this young team are as much playing for a place in Rio as the players of any of the other teams. Good performances here could win places in the World Series, perhaps contracts, and who knows what beyond that. Certainly we have seen from the World Series that the mark of a successful team is a regular turnover of personnel, bringing in young new players to challenge the status quo. England need to do the same and this is the shop windows where the potential stars of 2016 can to show what they can do.

Irelandare the last team anyone will have been want to be drawn against. The rate at which the Irish learned and improved in Kazan was astonishing. Well beaten by Spain on Day One, you felt certain that if they had met on Day Two the result would maybe have been different. They really could win this pool, and if any team is likely to break up the domination of the four WSWS teams in this championship then surely it is Ireland. As with Spain, direct qualification is off the table, but a place in the Repecharge and the World Series is another matter. On this form the former seems a great bet, while the latter even more than that. This is the team to watch.

Scotlandhad so many good individual performances in Kazan that it is almost a surprise to see that they were in the Bowl, having missed out on the semi-finals by less than a single try. It may come down to that again here. They also have the extra incentive of playing against England, as several players in their team showed potential to compete for Olympic places - and there would be no better opponents to show that potential off against than the English. Most importantly, perhaps, long term is the fact that they are - or should be - safe from relegation. Avoiding relegation for any newly promoted team is always an achievement, and it will give Scotland a great base for the future if they can keep a seat at the top table.

ForGermanyits all about keeping their place at the top. It is most unlikely that Germany will be playing in anything other than the bowl on Day Two - though there again they shocked everyone with their win over Wales at the same stage last year last year so it is dangerous to underestimate them. Of the three teams in relegation contention they may be narrow favourites to avoid the drop.