France, Russia favourites for Tokyo spots

So often postponed and delayed, but at last this weekend the Olympic repechage takes place in Monaco, barely four weeks before the Games themselves are due to begin.

France and Russia, as the only World Series teams in the competition, are overwhelming favourites to fill the final two spots in Tokyo.

As usual the opening day will consist of the usual three pools of four teams, with eight qualifying for the second stage.

However, as this is a qualification tournament once a team is out, they are out. So there will be no “Challenge” tournament for the bottom four teams, and no classification matches for teams beaten in the knockout games. There will not even be a “final”.

Instead, the top eight teams will be ranked based on their first- round performances. These rankings will determine the “quarter-final” pairings, and in turn the “semi-finals”, the winners of which will qualify for Tokyo.

As a result, the only danger Russia and France face is if they meet each other in a semi-final, so we can expect to see some very nervous coaches armed with calculators throughout the third round of pool games at the start of the second day.

In this regard France have a massive advantage as they will play last, and will know exactly what they need to do to avoid meetings Russia in the knockouts.

We have, of course, been here before. Back in 2015 France needed to finish two places ahead of Russia in the final round of that year’s European Grand Prix in order to qualify for Rio. Playing after Russia in the final round of games France somewhat unexpectedly lost to the Netherlands in the final game, thus just happening to end up in Russia’s half of the draw on the second day, where they beat Russia 19-10 in the semi-final, went on to win the final, and so qualify.

That was not the only time Russia have been one game away from the Olympics. They also lost to Spain in the Olympic Repechage 2016 final (when only one place was on offer) and 2019 lost to England in Europe’s Olympic qualifier. Their determination to not miss out again has led to theirhiring South African sports scientist Graham Bentzto help them get over the line this time.

Russia have drawn Argentina, Mexico and Samoa in Pool A – teams they have never lost to (or even conceded a point to) this century.

France, in Pool C, meet Hong Kong, Madagascar and Colombia. They have met the first two teams once – winning both games – but have never previously met Colombia.

The third pool – Pool B – is wide open, featuring Papua New Guinea (who have only just arrived in Monaco after initially being prevented from travelling), Kazakhstan, Jamaica and Tunisia – teams from four different continents who rarely have any chance to play outside their regions. Tunisia have a small advantage of having actually played some international rugby in the past year, thanks to the efforts of Rugby Africa, but this is a pool that could be won by any of the four teams.

The tournament kicks off at 10.58 CET on Saturday, with the crucial qualification games due to be played from 18.07 CET on Sunday.

SQUADS

ARGENTINA: 1 Gimena Mattus; 2 Ariana Perez; 3 Andrea Moreno; 4 Renata Giraudo; 5 Yamila Otero; 6 Agostina Campos Ruiz; 7 Florencia Moreno; 8 Josefna Padellaro; 9 Mayra Aguilar; 10 Sofa Gonzalez; 11 Antonella Reding; 12 Maria Taladrid;

COLOMBIA: 1 Maribel Mestra; 2 Isabel Romero; 3 Carmen Ibarra; 4 Daniela Alzate; 5 Valentina Alvarez; 6 Valeria Muñoz; 7 Isabel Arzuaga; 8 Leidy Soto; 9 Camila Lopera; 10 Laura Mejia; 11 Marcela Osorio; 12 Valentina Tapias;

FRANCE: 1 Séraphine Okemba; 2 Anne-Cécile Ciofani; 3 Chloé Pelle; 4 Chloe Jacquet; 5 Jade Ulutule; 6 Fanny Horta; 7 Coralie Bertrand; 8 Camille Grassineau; 9 Carla Neisen; 10 Caroline Drouin; 11 Shannon Izar; 12 Lina Guerin;

HONG KONG: 1 Natasha Olson-Thorne; 2 Shanna Forrest; 3 Chloe Chan; 4 Maggie Au Yeung; 5 Chow Mei Nam; 6 Melody Li; 7 Chong Ka Yan; 8 Nam Ka Man; 9 Jess Ho; 10 Stephanie Chan; 11 Hui Man Ling; 12 Agnes Tse;

JAMAICA: Antonette Sinclair; Zonasha Hinds; Shanique Smith; Vanessa Henry; Tiera Thomas-Reynolds; Carolyn Roach; Lovell Evans; Lauren Dawkins; Shanae Gordon; Tarja Richards; Sasha-Gaye Green; Naomi Dodd;

KAZAKHSTAN: 1 Veronika Stepanyuga; 2 Nigora Nurmatova; 3 Alina Askerova; 4 Daiana Kazibekova; 6 Vlada Odnoletok; 7 Kundyzay Baktybayeva; 8 Diana Abisheva; 9 Mariya Grishina; 10 Balzhan Koishybayeva; 11 Darya Tkachyova; 12 Lyudmila Sherer; 13 Galina Krassavina;

MADAGASCAR: 1 Marie Bodonandrianina; 2 Laurence Rasoanandrasana; 3 Nomenjanahary Sarindra Sahondramalala; 4 Joela Mirasoa Fenohasina; 5 Sophie Razafarisoa; 6 Claudia Rasoarimalala; 7 Veronique Rasoanekena; 8 Dinah Raveloarinoro; 9 Vonjimalala Ranorovololona; 10 Tantely Razafmahefa; 11 Volatiana Rasoanandrasana; 12 Patricia Ravololonirina;

MEXICO: 1 Michelle Farah; 2 Isabela González; 3 Jennifer Salomon; 6 Alessandra Bender; 7 Juanita Elguezabal-Dority; 8 Karmin Macedo; 9 Daniela Rosales; 10 Karina Landeros; 11 Vanessa Rodriguez; 12 Rosa Rivera; 13 Daniela Alvarado; 14 Maria Fernanda Tovar;

PAPUA NEW GUINEA: 1 Kymlie Rapilla; 2 Fatima Rama; 3 Helen Abau; 4 Geua Larry; 5 Esther Gigimat; 7 Lynette Aua; 8 Gwen Pokana; 9 Chelsea Garesa; 10 Alice Alois; 11 Cathy Puro; 12 Taiva Lavai;

RUSSIA: 1 Daria Noritsina; 2 Viktoriia Em; 3 Daria Shestakova; 4 Alena Tiron; 5 Baizat Khamidova; 6 Iana Danilova; 7 Kristina Seredina; 8 Marina Kukina; 9 Daria Lushina; 10 Elena Zdrokova; 11 Nadezhda Sozonova; 12 Anna Baranchuk;

SAMOA: 1 Fogamanono Tusiga; 2 Rebirth Vaaga; 3 Perise Tumutumu; 4 Faalua Lefulefu; 5 Fofoga Vaa; 6 Jasmine Esekia; 7 Fuarosa Niusila; 8 Linda Fiafa; 9 Saelua Leaula; 10 Lomi Peniamina; 11 Ofa Sopoaga; 12 Elisapeta Leti;

TUNISIA: 1 Yasmine Korbi; 2 Lamia Mlawah; 3 Sana Chaarana; 4 Mariem Mekni; 5 Ameni Ben Salem; 6 Oumayma Dziri; 7 Samah Lahwel; 8 Amal Dardouri; 9 Mayssa Hawani; 10 Amna Ben Arous; 11 Hajer Saoudi; 12 Halima Ben Charrada; :